Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7162276cef7880cc42fc026fa65be6824095e9f1af4a2d6eb80f310dd1cc90a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 4c | 300.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 63c | 178.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 176.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 61c | 153.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 70c | 149.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 76c | 118.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 72c | 116.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 75c | 112.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 112.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 26c | 104.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 96.68$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 95.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 22c | 88.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 79.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 37c | 73.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 41c | 60.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 60.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 55.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 32c | 49.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 49.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…8c3ebacked Yes | 30c | 49.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 30c | 49.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 46.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 45.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 61c | 43.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 52c | 42.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…79abbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 38.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 33.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 62c | 32.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed Yes | 47c | 31.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 66c | 28.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 54c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 62c | 25.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 60c | 24.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 23.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed No | 60c | 23.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 22.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 69c | 19.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 74c | 18.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…fea7backed No | 70c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 15.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.