Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-02-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e3490256429f4be6c81442d2b5b6f384ec7bc4abd7cc8d383260461046bc6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 38c | 3,999$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.73 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 3,292$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 2,100$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.68 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 1,686$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.03 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 38c | 779.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Yes | 20c | 763.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 34c | 565$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.52 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed No | 63c | 441.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 37c | 402.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.07 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 28c | 273.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed No | 63c | 215.87$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 148.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…8601backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…3842backed Yes | 35c | 126.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…31ebbacked Yes | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 64c | 119.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 36c | 112.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 81.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Yes | 25c | 78.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…1363backed Yes | 36c | 72.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 36c | 60.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Yes | 31c | 50.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 63c | 40.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 38c | 36.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 28.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-02-15?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-15?No won
- Will VfL Bochum vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.