Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x830ed29641d16ff39f939ac0b5f6a47760cf59f65c72522bae6e8b27d0fa88c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 3,284$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 34c | 768.39$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.34 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 36c | 737.62$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.93 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 16c | 519.72$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…2ecfbacked Yes | 36c | 462.49$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 64c | 424.34$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 63c | 408.05$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed No | 65c | 328$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 36c | 276.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 28c | 173.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 69c | 172.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…8601backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 36c | 129.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 36c | 111.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…439ebacked Yes | 36c | 109.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 64cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 28c | 107.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 17c | 90.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 63c | 68.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…5310backed Yes | 30c | 66.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 36c | 66.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…398ebacked Yes | 38c | 65.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 74c | 64.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 25c | 42.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 30c | 40.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…11a6backed Yes | 32c | 37.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa044…9969backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…2580backed No | 63c | 16.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-15?this page
- Will VfL Bochum vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-02-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.