Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06174de9463bc29033f00b465181eefd00f9245a9054e44c253daecb3a0cd3b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 31c | 888.98$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.83 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 361.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 68c | 352$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 315.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 9c | 291.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 30c | 236.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 213$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 208.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 68c | 164.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked No | 66c | 150.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…294fbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 135.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 122$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 120.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 105$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 17c | 104.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 96.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 13c | 86.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 83.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 22c | 56.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 31c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 74c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 80c | 14.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.