Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x062acf25513bd4de249d3051f7c8f21435ef646683e5cac5b38e542800d3dd7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,276 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3bc…03efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 1,227$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.95 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 27c | 1,112$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 582 | 29.2%170 W · 412 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 1,025$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.61 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 27c | 411.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 73c | 409$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 367.37$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 234.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 220.56$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 28c | 220$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 17c | 163.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 102.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 95.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 23c | 53.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…8f5dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 28c | 47.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 72c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 25.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional vs. Estoril Praia end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-03-15?No won
- Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-03-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.