Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06304f9cdd38ac64a7ca3936aabe2999a0b64fa340c2292503d71db7cf5bda5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 456.35$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 45c | 399.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 50c | 309.66$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 65c | 307.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 256.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 192.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 147.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…cecabacked Yes | 49c | 116.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 51c | 109.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 107.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 53c | 104.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 46c | 90.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 89.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 37c | 84.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 39c | 76.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 76.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 65.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 64c | 61.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…7eabbacked No | 49c | 59.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 42c | 58.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 42c | 57.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 55c | 56.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 50c | 51.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 51c | 50.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 41c | 49.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 48.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 51c | 47.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 47.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 51c | 46.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 43.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 46c | 42.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 51c | 41.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 46c | 36.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 45c | 35.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 70c | 34.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 45c | 34.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 42c | 33.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…527ebacked No | 57c | 33.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 46c | 33.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 33.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa18…682ebacked Yes | 58c | 32.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 49c | 31.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 31.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 41c | 29.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 56c | 27.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 51c | 25.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 45c | 22.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed No | 52c | 21.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 55c | 21.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 21.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b3…532cbacked No | 63c | 18.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 64c | 16.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.