Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9b46cc1516001a668fcad1c57ddcfa471a36d5f427cbe879ea2389fcdc9952d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 377.1$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.94 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 352.32$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 289.03$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 61c | 263.47$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 244.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 167.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 66c | 146.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 57c | 121.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 111.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 108.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 33c | 99.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 69c | 96.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 42c | 96.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 47c | 90.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 43c | 87.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 61c | 87.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 31c | 84.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 78.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 74.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 39c | 74.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 43c | 71.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed Yes | 48c | 61.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 65c | 61.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…b94bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 58c | 49.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 38c | 45.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 41c | 45.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 44.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…17cbbacked Yes | 35c | 44.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc086…6882backed Yes | 43c | 42.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 65c | 39.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 38.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 37c | 38.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 66c | 36.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 39c | 36.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab2…651cbacked Yes | 35c | 32.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 67c | 32.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 31.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 28.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 61c | 27.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 58c | 27.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2c…af6cbacked No | 58c | 26.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 21.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 57c | 19.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 16.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4475…b483backed No | 77c | 15.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.