Other European Leagues · resolved market
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06599346cd6cf8d25d055692cbabd72e21425b380f1bc5e9c5d9245b7e5cec85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 2,358$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.52 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,346$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.42 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 52c | 961.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.52 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +11.1wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Under | 51c | 196.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -7.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 49c | 163.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Over | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…380cbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 47c | 92.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 52c | 55.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…3000backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…cd9ebacked Over | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…342dbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 76c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 2.5this page
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 3.5Over won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.