Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cilic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x066067ca082a9bf8064481c360f6ef2d9bf56bf870f7dca452a21e50f64c72db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Cilic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cilic | 38c | 835.25$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.1 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Auger-Aliassime | 62c | 722.54$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.09 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7b…fb71backed Cilic | 48c | 504.18$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Auger-Aliassime | 59c | 385.67$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.56 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cilic | 40c | 249.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…a95bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 52c | 206.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…c9ecbacked Auger-Aliassime | 69c | 201.42$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Cilic | 49c | 174.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…158cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 51c | 154.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…57a3backed Cilic | 48c | 107.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…8715backed Auger-Aliassime | 60c | 98.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 95.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Cilic | 39c | 94.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d33…3d8cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Cilic | 50c | 87.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -10.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed Cilic | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…b86cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 60c | 79.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Auger-Aliassime | 77c | 76.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Auger-Aliassime | 54c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cilic | 36c | 72.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…61babacked Auger-Aliassime | 60c | 65.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Cilic | 40c | 64.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cilic | 36c | 41.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Auger-Aliassime | 73c | 36.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked Auger-Aliassime | 50c | 29.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Auger-Aliassime | 64c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cilic | 39c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Cilic | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Auger-Aliassime | 58c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 128 | 31.3%40 W · 88 L | -20.8wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…ea85backed Auger-Aliassime | 52c | 19.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Cilicthis page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cilic: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marin CilicFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5)Auger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.