Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d25a22b7c90c4706e762311d5b05e97f091f0cb7dae8c3d4902ef0cb88ead5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Auger-Aliassime, Cilic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Auger-Aliassime | 44c | 1,225$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.33 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cilic | 41c | 526.38$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.22 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 38c | 372.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.94 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Cilic | 60c | 323.28$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.25 | 850 | 57.5%489 W · 361 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f15…650dbacked Cilic | 61c | 298.95$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.36 | 157 | 62.4%98 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Auger-Aliassime | 61c | 233$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Auger-Aliassime | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cilic | 56c | 185.95$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Auger-Aliassime | 69c | 142.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 588 | 59%347 W · 241 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Cilic | 30c | 114.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Auger-Aliassime | 41c | 70.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Auger-Aliassime | 48c | 60.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 42c | 58.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Auger-Aliassime | 38c | 53.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cilic | 58c | 48.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…f9edbacked Auger-Aliassime | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…566dbacked Cilic | 65c | 45.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Cilic | 59c | 33.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Cilic | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Auger-Aliassime | 50c | 31.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Auger-Aliassime | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36de…ea85backed Cilic | 58c | 29.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cilic | 53c | 24.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5)this page
- Auger-Aliassime vs. Cilic: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marin CilicFelix Auger-Aliassime won
- Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs CilicAuger-Aliassime won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.