NHL · resolved market
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. San Diego Gulls
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x067a2cb67c4d6d6931d4e7ead7d773dee21d3bf600690232ceb6cac7df71fe6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bakersfield Condorsof Bakersfield Condors, San Diego Gulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0826…8738backed Bakersfield Condors | 42c | 1,100$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…04c0backed San Diego Gulls | 58c | 1,100$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Bakersfield Condors | 47c | 625.83$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…1618backed Bakersfield Condors | 47c | 218.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…d473backed San Diego Gulls | 54c | 158.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4888…f20bbacked San Diego Gulls | 54c | 153.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…4619backed San Diego Gulls | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9b…a8e0backed San Diego Gulls | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca27…78a0backed Bakersfield Condors | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…0951backed Bakersfield Condors | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego Gulls | 53c | 126.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Bakersfield Condors | 59c | 85.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…0433backed San Diego Gulls | 53c | 75.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…5a8abacked San Diego Gulls | 53c | 73.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…8107backed San Diego Gulls | 53c | 69.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed San Diego Gulls | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372d…a119backed San Diego Gulls | 53c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed San Diego Gulls | 39c | 36.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked San Diego Gulls | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…3b29backed San Diego Gulls | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed San Diego Gulls | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…1a20backed San Diego Gulls | 50c | 20.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.