Tennis · resolved market
ITF Aldershot: Oscar Brown vs Tiago Cacao
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x068e1051ec05ebf8211a9f594483397518e357f3c78b7dd07439c90fb9a58485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiago Cacaoof Oscar Brown, Tiago Cacao
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Tiago Cacao | 54c | 351.85$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 1,053 | 40.9%431 W · 622 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tiago Cacao | 64c | 351.62$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…61babacked Oscar Brown | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…b59cbacked Tiago Cacao | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.42 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Oscar Brown | 26c | 203.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Oscar Brown | 26c | 196.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Tiago Cacao | 33c | 147.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Oscar Brown | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,000 | 49.8%498 W · 502 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…b3eabacked Tiago Cacao | 29c | 120.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Oscar Brown | 46c | 119.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Oscar Brown | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Oscar Brown | 34c | 72.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Oscar Brown | 39c | 69.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Tiago Cacao | 57c | 68.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Oscar Brown | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Oscar Brown | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,009 | 38.3%386 W · 623 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Oscar Brown | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 577 | 36.7%212 W · 365 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oscar Brown | 48c | 45.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Oscar Brown | 67c | 44.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 431 | 44.8%193 W · 238 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Oscar Brown | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 54.2%562 W · 474 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tiago Cacao | 77c | 43.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Tiago Cacao | 56c | 41.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Tiago Cacao | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Oscar Brown | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3,726 | 42.4%1,580 W · 2,146 L | -48.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Oscar Brown | 60c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Tiago Cacao | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Tiago Cacao | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Tiago Cacao | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tiago Cacao | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Tiago Cacao | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1,730 | 52.2%903 W · 827 L | -8.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Tiago Cacao | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.