Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x068e80be1dc3ab43e34b71990956bbbe7bcaeb6296e5325d5cda08b0fe8d5764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,712$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.74 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 55c | 362.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.61 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 26c | 287.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 52c | 225.66$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 225.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 54c | 184.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.68 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 150.4$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 44c | 139.39$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 129.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 27c | 112.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 48c | 89.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 25c | 87.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 24c | 85.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 35c | 85.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 74.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 73.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 20c | 71.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 71.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 49c | 65.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 48c | 60.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 42c | 60.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 45c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…b601backed Yes | 74c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 58c | 53.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 25c | 52.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 52.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 74c | 46.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…262cbacked No | 65c | 46.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 39c | 40.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 29c | 40.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 35.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 34.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…ab98backed Yes | 73c | 33.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9a…966dbacked No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 30.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 48c | 25.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 23.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 67c | 22.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 21.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 21.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 77c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 53c | 19.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 73c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 79c | 12.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.