Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0698eda6b808ecddebb647affcc6d626bdad7fb342198b4d13daffe8b0b90340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 16c | 802.79$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 37c | 329.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 266.64$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 61c | 236$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 37c | 133.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 39c | 114$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 37c | 98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 87.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 85.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 19c | 84.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 64.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 59c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 255 | 69%176 W · 79 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 38c | 49.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 38.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 60c | 32.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 32.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 29.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 28.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 28.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -10.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…a38abacked No | 62c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 62c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 59c | 19.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 18.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.