Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8cee3c11a04e5091454adc1ec9cdc8674654160103c3f8e1cfe1f85c5324ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 410.52$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.6 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 61c | 383.6$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 96 | 29.2%28 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 29c | 328.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.54 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 250.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 28c | 207.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.44 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 155$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 139.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 70c | 127.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 113.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 39c | 111$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 55c | 94.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 94.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 82.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 55c | 74.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 71.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 66.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 49c | 64.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 613 | 33%202 W · 411 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 55.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 325 | 41.8%136 W · 189 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 21c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 47.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 50c | 42.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 42.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 29c | 41.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 41.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 40.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 37.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 37.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 37.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…4e62backed No | 63c | 37.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 39c | 35.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 51c | 30.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 30.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +18.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…5d9ebacked No | 58c | 25.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.39per pick | 62cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 71c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 67c | 21.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 62c | 17.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 63c | 16.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 75c | 13.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 413 | 12.3%51 W · 362 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.