AI · resolved market
Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06a0dd79eecae486ba95df7640eceea0fab69e2603a0df7d86bc4dbad5184254
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 57c | 149$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 46c | 101.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 49c | 66.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34dd…7961backed Yes | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b17…ab15backed Yes | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…28a7backed No | 80c | 25.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?this page
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.