Weather · resolved market
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 85 and 90?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06a56166f2a4f136ad7512b86f064f16926626d2acc250f1ca27dc5ba88b3f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd778…18d3backed Yes | 77c | 189.04$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e4…2528backed Yes | 58c | 124.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 73c | 81.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 24c | 61.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb404…3283backed Yes | 77c | 60.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 57.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…4d82backed No | 27c | 54.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…c63bbacked No | 42c | 48.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 74c | 48.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 73c | 37.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1301…a6b9backed No | 27c | 37.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed Yes | 72c | 21.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…7946backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed Yes | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 85 and 90?this page
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 80 and 85?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.