Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06b3a2152215c33d6406abdd5f1c9424ba5c7903d1cc1eff5a62957b7264ba9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 79c | 437.99$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 435.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 262.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 80c | 262.21$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 226.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 25c | 177.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 169.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 8c | 140.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 76c | 128.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 66c | 122.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fa…fa28backed Yes | 27c | 108.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 108$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 61c | 106.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 24c | 100.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 99.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…7060backed Yes | 12c | 95.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 21c | 95.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 91.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 83.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 75.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 22c | 68.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 29c | 64.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 64.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…5fd3backed Yes | 21c | 60.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…2db8backed Yes | 26c | 60.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…d98abacked Yes | 24c | 58.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 30c | 55.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 53.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f3…92d6backed Yes | 29c | 51.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 50.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked Yes | 27c | 47.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 32c | 46.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 69c | 44.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 72c | 42.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 41.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 46c | 41.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 28c | 37.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 34c | 37.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 75c | 36.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 35.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302f…141cbacked Yes | 38c | 29.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 29.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed No | 69c | 27.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 25.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 68c | 23.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 59c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 22.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 74c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 69c | 19.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 60c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 77c | 16.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb11…73f2backed No | 74c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 66c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 67c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 76c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.