TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Roar Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Vici Gamingof Vici Gaming, Roar Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31a4…7afcbacked Roar Gaming30c1,450$435 inLost-$43595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Vici Gaming70c1,424$997 inWon+$427.1741056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Roar Gaming19c1,384$257 inLost-$256.5967043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Roar Gaming16c1,314$210 inLost-$210.3428341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Roar Gaming13c712.54$93 inLost-$93.0888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Roar Gaming18c405.03$71 inLost-$71.2972035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Vici Gaming75c308.48$231 inWon+$77.1286659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Roar Gaming18c200$36 inLost-$3673743.6%321 W · 416 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Roar Gaming13c185.95$24 inLost-$24.172,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Roar Gaming24c121.6$29 inLost-$29.0551550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Roar Gaming15c101.21$15 inLost-$151,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x546a…36fdbacked Roar Gaming15c94.9$14 inLost-$14.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8b8…61dcbacked Vici Gaming77c86.96$67 inWon+$2018065.6%118 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1816…2ee6backed Roar Gaming23c82.94$19 inLost-$19.0837549.3%185 W · 190 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5031…1ca3backed Vici Gaming75c60$45 inWon+$15.36055%33 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Vici Gaming75c59.93$45 inWon+$15.281,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Vici Gaming80c59.9$48 inWon+$12.232,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Vici Gaming75c56$42 inWon+$1469033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Vici Gaming73c40$29 inWon+$10.837851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Vici Gaming77c36$28 inWon+$8.2855147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Vici Gaming75c27$20 inWon+$6.7565337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked Vici Gaming78c25.92$20 inWon+$5.720452.9%108 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xadc2…401dbacked Vici Gaming80c20$16 inWon+$410261.8%63 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Vici Gaming73c18.52$14 inWon+$51,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.