Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06dc49737b48eee03c561f72598290b6733ec4276f4bb938525a36cd6a622f5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 218.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 200.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 26c | 174.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 69c | 166.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 163.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 148.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 50c | 143.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…c072backed Yes | 75c | 131.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 123.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 69c | 112.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 79c | 111.94$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 32c | 109.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 64c | 105.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 39c | 99.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 98.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 96.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 66c | 86.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 39c | 79.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 35c | 77.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 32c | 72.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 71c | 69.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 58c | 66.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 31c | 66.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 48c | 62.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…e8b6backed Yes | 48c | 58.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 75c | 58.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 64c | 56.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 34c | 56.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 60c | 53.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 30c | 49.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 46.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 24c | 45.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…3affbacked No | 37c | 44.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 43.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 42.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 34c | 39.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 75c | 39.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 37c | 39.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 37c | 38.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 41c | 34.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 34.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 32.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 68c | 31.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 33c | 30.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 66c | 30.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 30.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabef…dbc9backed Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 40c | 25.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 44c | 24.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 64c | 22.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 66c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 64c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 67c | 16.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 68c | 15.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.