Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeca9bd2c216267174dc695aff95cb79ad1d3619b43b8b936e51164a747c42f38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 454.47$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 18c | 229.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 79c | 206.76$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 204.27$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 186.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 185.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 147.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 138.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed No | 76c | 116.8$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 115.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 114.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 14c | 112.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f56…a97bbacked Yes | 11c | 111.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 111.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 106.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…9756backed Yes | 13c | 102.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 20c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 99.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 20c | 87.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 23c | 86.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 73c | 75.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 29c | 70.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…b669backed No | 74c | 68.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 26c | 66.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 62.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 57.64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed Yes | 35c | 55.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x512c…17d5backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 78c | 49.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 73c | 48.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 28c | 48.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 68c | 43.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…130ebacked Yes | 33c | 38.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 77c | 38.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 29c | 38.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 71c | 34.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b3…cf70backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 78c | 32.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 63c | 28.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 76c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 77c | 17.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 65c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 72c | 15.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 74c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.