Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4252ca8ba9186a88bb316eb1d9fbf2e5845429653b0f7e3ba4475b3a85fda8c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 490.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 441.19$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 406.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 201.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cb…515fbacked Yes | 20c | 146.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 18c | 144.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 143.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 132.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…e8b6backed Yes | 47c | 120.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 24c | 105.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 16c | 103.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 103.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 101.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 99.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 18c | 95.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 19c | 89.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…1aa9backed Yes | 26c | 84.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 82.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 20c | 72.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 80c | 68.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 28c | 63.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 33c | 59.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…79a6backed No | 67c | 51.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 43.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 65c | 43.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 59c | 43.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 74c | 40.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…2909backed Yes | 37c | 27.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 26.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 79c | 26.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 75c | 25.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 79c | 18.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 77c | 17.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 80c | 16.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 74c | 16.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 68c | 15.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 74c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.