NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06dfd76ebc21a71dbfbc026460fdb677acd43796c48c22496466a68fc61f77cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,290 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1237…0bc5backed Over | 59c | 331$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…31ccbacked Over | 59c | 325$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…9445backed Over | 59c | 306$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf2…13cabacked Under | 41c | 262$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5a…5e87backed Under | 41c | 258$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cca…cf66backed Over | 59c | 242$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…1ac1backed Under | 41c | 240$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb2…89e2backed Under | 41c | 235$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304e…9d5bbacked Over | 59c | 232$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3374…ebdfbacked Under | 41c | 230$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7de9…4d20backed Over | 59c | 227$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c9…8ab7backed Under | 41c | 224$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…7c47backed Under | 41c | 209$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e3…0c9fbacked Under | 41c | 176$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2815…1cdbbacked Over | 59c | 171$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 60c | 151$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 40c | 151$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 106.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 59c | 66.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…76e5backed Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 48c | 41.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 57c | 21.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. LightningHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.