TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$512,395

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $512,395 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 404 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa07…2125backed Lightning54c186,285$100,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,093.31,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Hurricanes46c103,075$47,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,691.2967051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Hurricanes47c65,000$30,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,45048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Hurricanes46c56,980$26,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,768.9551550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Lightning53c30,000$15,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,899.9814650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Lightning54c25,676$13,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,865.0448549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Lightning47c17,702$8,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,234.3227448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hurricanes47c15,168$7,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,076.7361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hurricanes47c13,317$6,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,120.371,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning53c12,109$6,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,447.581,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hurricanes46c11,741$5,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,340.411,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Hurricanes47c10,628$4,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,632.6632151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Lightning54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Hurricanes46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.978134.6%28 W · 53 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Hurricanes48c9,845$4,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,103.971,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Hurricanes46c9,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,86026058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Lightning54c9,000$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,86015749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Lightning54c6,152$3,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,321.9845751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,24089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Hurricanes79c5,691$4,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.2685464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Lightning54c5,556$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.2415145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning53c5,555$2,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.3691945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Hurricanes47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6509752.6%51 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Lightning54c4,400$2,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,37617247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x910d…cfc0backed Lightning39c4,363$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Lightning54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Lightning53c3,718$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.4583652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Lightning53c3,333$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.5710850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Hurricanes47c3,191$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,691.4931550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Hurricanes80c3,177$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.391,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Hurricanes46c3,131$1,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.3836648.6%178 W · 188 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked Lightning54c3,004$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.082025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Lightning53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Lightning54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.9960249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca4e…f97ebacked Hurricanes47c2,835$1,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning53c2,697$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.431,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Lightning28c2,570$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.7321856.4%123 W · 95 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Hurricanes46c2,500$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35062346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Lightning54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3501,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hurricanes72c2,418$1,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.921,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Hurricanes46c2,400$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,303.4991653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Lightning21c2,057$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.1639344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning25c2,037$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.122,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x022a…351dbacked Lightning54c1,966$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Hurricanes70c1,852$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.3795049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning31c1,837$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.892,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked Lightning55c1,644$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002025%5 W · 15 L-5.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning53c1,613$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85559450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcede…6736backed Lightning54c1,608$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+41.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Lightning54c1,600$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.9927850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hurricanes61c1,586$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.4589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Lightning54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.9943548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hurricanes49c1,426$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.7999638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Hurricanes68c1,369$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.5889355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Lightning27c1,296$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.4533234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Lightning14c1,139$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8360337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb3d…4239backed Lightning54c1,136$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.812147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb145…df85backed Lightning54c1,123$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6105658.9%33 W · 23 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Hurricanes46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.9614940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Hurricanes47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53024845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba9c…d2c1backed Lightning52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5209853.1%52 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Hurricanes46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54068449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Lightning53c999.99$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5309157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1999…6b89backed Lightning55c998.25$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96cb…257cbacked Hurricanes46c990.72$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe622…ea5ebacked Lightning54c930$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.222352.9%118 W · 105 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Lightning25c928.32$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.3157157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5422…76a4backed Lightning54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-15.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Hurricanes47c900$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4778060%48 W · 32 L+8.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lightning53c864.14$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.992,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ae…9c62backed Hurricanes47c817.02$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.021838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c6…75adbacked Lightning53c799.99$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42440152.4%210 W · 191 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf44e…2747backed Lightning54c785$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.92254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Hurricanes46c730.39$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.4148050.6%243 W · 237 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Hurricanes66c730.01$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.257542.7%32 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Lightning47c612$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.38837.5%33 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Hurricanes46c599.99$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32432648.2%157 W · 169 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1742…37ebbacked Lightning54c590$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.65137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd78d…56dfbacked Hurricanes47c590$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.72740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d4f…10f2backed Hurricanes47c586$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.582352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Hurricanes47c578$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.3426551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b2…ffcabacked Lightning54c557$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.787556%42 W · 33 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc6b…e7bbbacked Lightning54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfaa…3858backed Lightning54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-40.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Lightning54c555$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.789249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7cb…bc54backed Hurricanes46c543.48$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.4829946.8%140 W · 159 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc070…203abacked Hurricanes47c531.91$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.9115252%79 W · 73 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…48bcbacked Lightning54c522.4$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.12650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Lightning19c520$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.39430.9%29 W · 65 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64da…2292backed Lightning40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019154.5%104 W · 87 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72b4…cdb2backed Hurricanes72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1406150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc506…abb0backed Lightning29c500$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1456250%31 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Hurricanes79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10533837.9%128 W · 210 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00cf…d102backed Lightning53c499.99$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26549249.6%244 W · 248 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Hurricanes46c499.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27070547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x983e…c5cebacked Lightning54c499.98$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.996142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Lightning53c499.03$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.493844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a13…db82backed Lightning53c481.73$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.547948.1%38 W · 41 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Lightning39c467.92$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4957238.1%218 W · 354 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad0…0184backed Lightning54c444.5$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.031618.8%3 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.28per pick46cpaid-61.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.