NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7934a044ae4f5456a2456d7523e7a8c9e649636e7c6720b8ed72bd0f344fec47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,385 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked Under | 54c | 11,188$6,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,154.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…ced0backed Over | 46c | 7,000$3,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,248.26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 6,450$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 2,903$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.73 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 53c | 1,190$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.3 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 665.94$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.99 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…169ebacked Over | 48c | 376$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…b108backed Under | 52c | 363$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5391…1b80backed Under | 52c | 348$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 56c | 320.24$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.33 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 46c | 306.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…39edbacked Over | 48c | 302$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a04…d1c7backed Under | 52c | 263$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Under | 44c | 236.75$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Over | 48c | 215.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…e451backed Under | 52c | 205$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…78aabacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 53c | 188.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…0902backed Under | 52c | 181$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50b…a106backed Over | 48c | 179$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa0…3902backed Over | 48c | 175$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335e…0a4dbacked Over | 48c | 168$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…1edebacked Over | 48c | 166$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf355…8cfdbacked Over | 48c | 158$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 46c | 155$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…245dbacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…4487backed Under | 52c | 142$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9d…d417backed Over | 46c | 117.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863e…1424backed Over | 48c | 117$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…d5f1backed Over | 48c | 116$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…eac2backed Over | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Over | 57c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 57.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 72c | 46.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 42c | 39.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Over | 59c | 32.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…e5d6backed Over | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 54c | 28.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 57c | 22.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 20.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. LightningHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.