Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06e0c645e17034ba36a709a65840832a1136f8c28cc63af6b9c182ecb5aabc6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ec8…9b78backed Yes | 22c | 4,065$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…e672backed Yes | 27c | 3,903$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8653…c6f8backed No | 78c | 1,380$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…2a1ebacked No | 78c | 1,350$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fc…358bbacked No | 78c | 1,335$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…33f8backed No | 73c | 1,305$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…5f73backed No | 73c | 1,300$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc024…8e99backed No | 73c | 1,298$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 387.01$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.68 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 381.85$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 24c | 361.48$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 71c | 283.09$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 281.94$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 33c | 259.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 255.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 255.69$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 242.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…028fbacked Yes | 21c | 241.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 236.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 225.35$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 206.7$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 25c | 187.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 76c | 156.52$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 26c | 134.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…2f18backed Yes | 16c | 128.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 26c | 123.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 21c | 121.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 119.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 118$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 71c | 103.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 98.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 96.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 21c | 92.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 49c | 91.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.64 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 80.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 33c | 79.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 26c | 79.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 78.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 21c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 50c | 76.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a3…b6bcbacked Yes | 29c | 74.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 20c | 74.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 71.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 76c | 64.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 18c | 59.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 39c | 59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 57.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 49c | 56.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked Yes | 20c | 54.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 47.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8908…21f2backed Yes | 53c | 47.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 75c | 45.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 31c | 44.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 36c | 41.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 25c | 41.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31bf…9ca3backed Yes | 44c | 40.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 74c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 38.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcd…bdcdbacked No | 63c | 38.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 36.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…7bbcbacked No | 70c | 35.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 52c | 33.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 73c | 23.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb372…2048backed No | 75c | 22.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 69c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03d…2bcfbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 58c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 76c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.