Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad7b4d51404b58540aff6ee2ff7a19faab0a7c2da2adfb48fdc02b18b3e676c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 3c | 1,562$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 6c | 1,086$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 367.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 322.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…c884backed Yes | 5c | 322.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 6c | 216.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 7c | 189.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 14c | 180.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 27c | 161.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 67c | 158.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed No | 79c | 152.74$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 34c | 150.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 141.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 127.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 13c | 123$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 111$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 77c | 64.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 55c | 56.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 63c | 52.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…e3babacked No | 45c | 45.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 75c | 44.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fd…e958backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…1dfbbacked No | 65c | 17.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.