Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f79d53564aa00650b14eaa2c22bb06e6ff7c11aec27f7e052be0b2150f91d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 869.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed No | 2c | 666.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 553.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 59c | 448$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.51 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 54c | 446.75$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 39c | 405.53$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.87 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed No | 20c | 403.43$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 326.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 53c | 285.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 72c | 272.42$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 269.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 266.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 22c | 266.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 9c | 219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 31c | 186.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.69 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 8c | 186.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 49c | 184.29$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 44c | 180$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 175.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…ed49backed Yes | 46c | 167.41$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.68 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 16c | 149.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 145.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 138.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 59c | 137.78$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 14c | 129.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 54c | 119.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 118$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 54c | 104.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…5afcbacked No | 54c | 92.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 61c | 89.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 50c | 86.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 61c | 81.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 45c | 75.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed No | 59c | 72.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 40c | 72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 56c | 68.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 66.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 72c | 53.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 49c | 50.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 48.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…d23abacked Yes | 46c | 48.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…6ae8backed Yes | 44c | 46.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 49c | 46.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 56c | 45.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 54c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 47c | 41.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 56c | 41.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 36.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 60c | 36.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x04b5…64d5backed Yes | 77c | 35.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 53c | 33.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 33.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 49c | 32.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 40c | 32.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98c4…5d90backed No | 80c | 31.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…50d8backed No | 53c | 23.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc695…b416backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 52c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…a057backed Yes | 61c | 16.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 69c | 15.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.