South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x073be85896bf0bf0dca6cfa3fbc3eb4a30b352cf2e11802bfcc8c6f908501caa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Deportivo La Guaira FCof Fluminense FC, Deportivo La Guaira FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee0d…57abbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 66c | 4,658$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.58 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Fluminense FC | 34c | 3,708$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.65 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Fluminense FC | 34c | 1,231$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.69 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 66c | 714.23$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.84 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Fluminense FC | 34c | 564.72$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 71c | 512.06$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Fluminense FC | 29c | 283.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Fluminense FC | 23c | 207.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Fluminense FC | 36c | 201.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Fluminense FC | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 69c | 87.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Fluminense FC | 34c | 84.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Fluminense FC | 29c | 81.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 64c | 78.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed Fluminense FC | 37c | 59.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Fluminense FC | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Fluminense FC | 30c | 51.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 67c | 38.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 67c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 67c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 69c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 66c | 15.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…21b8backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 75c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)this page
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.