South American Leagues · resolved market
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6bcc328a7d8209597844fdb86d6c1db956f16afc9b159873df2be7f0852004c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 34c | 4,523$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.54 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 1,574$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.12 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 12c | 920.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 667.44$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 58c | 660.23$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.56 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 43c | 445.25$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.31 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…7fe2backed Over | 40c | 289.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 60c | 270$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 27c | 265.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.72 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 12c | 244.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 41c | 239.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 79c | 204.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 79c | 204.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 79c | 204.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 79c | 204.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 79c | 204.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 123 | 61.8%76 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 197.52$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 61c | 195.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 25c | 150.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 78c | 126.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 78c | 126.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 78c | 126.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 78c | 126.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Over | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 20c | 53.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 41c | 47.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 37c | 33.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 148 | 24.3%36 W · 112 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Under | 78c | 26.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 58c | 26.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 59c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 78c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Deportivo La Guaira FC (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.