Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x074d55ef328880b6ad19cc2e5afb23279c1161baf927a9956ada1c9e50a37282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 3,381$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.36 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 36c | 2,774$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Over | 25c | 1,900$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 1,426$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.46 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 52c | 1,400$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 45c | 888.89$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 674.92$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.28 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Over | 29c | 600$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…ad6fbacked Over | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…d04bbacked Over | 47c | 499.98$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 57c | 376.32$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.82 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 56c | 356.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f7…ef5bbacked Under | 74c | 167.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf706…f685backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 9c | 124.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 42c | 114.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 28c | 107.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.41 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 64c | 84.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…639ebacked Over | 30c | 82.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…46e5backed Over | 33c | 81.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 70c | 71.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 77c | 66.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 23c | 61.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 42c | 53.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f61…4248backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 50c | 50.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 43.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 73c | 40.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 73c | 33.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…ddedbacked Over | 60c | 29.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 75c | 25.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 57c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…be0abacked Under | 74c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.