Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8aa39c710d0e80c50e0df369841ac63b282c16090d8f1e06248056e0585fa79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 11,586$6,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,150.85 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 50c | 10,552$5,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,276.22 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…a532backed Over | 53c | 10,487$5,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,549.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Under | 49c | 7,000$3,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,581.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 54c | 4,485$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 4,313$2,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.94 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 24c | 2,083$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 48c | 1,627$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.44 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 1,441$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.64 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Over | 8c | 1,402$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +156.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Under | 70c | 1,100$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 47c | 819.79$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.49 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Over | 53c | 798.7$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 131 | 54.2%71 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 50c | 686.24$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.21 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 56c | 494.08$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.4 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 327.86$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 317.09$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.79 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 312.74$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.47 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -54%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 50c | 294$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 277$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 223.54$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 50c | 206$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Under | 50c | 202$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Under | 52c | 152.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 44c | 147.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 44c | 143.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 55c | 119.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 55c | 106.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Over | 51c | 72.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Under | 51c | 63.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 51c | 62.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 162 | 55.6%90 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Under | 56c | 54.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed Under | 62c | 51.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 49c | 47.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 56c | 43.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Over | 44c | 40.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…3be2backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…d3bbbacked Under | 59c | 37.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 46c | 33.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 48c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d61…2641backed Under | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 47c | 22.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 143 | 49.7%71 W · 72 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 51c | 21.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…f50fbacked Under | 60c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Fagiano Okayama won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Fagiano Okayama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.