Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0768000f87be3195029558089a5c50e9552ae0e9afcf62388f6ab2c3a6c96523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hunter Heckof Naoya Honda, Hunter Heck
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff36…e757backed Hunter Heck | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Hunter Heck | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.97 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Naoya Honda | 49c | 1,430$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.67 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Naoya Honda | 46c | 758.35$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.29 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hunter Heck | 58c | 620.64$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.68 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…4aadbacked Naoya Honda | 29c | 533.06$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 242 | 45%109 W · 133 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 471.31$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.04 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…9b39backed Naoya Honda | 61c | 438.21$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.02 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…420abacked Naoya Honda | 33c | 419.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Hunter Heck | 56c | 374.8$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.35 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Naoya Honda | 29c | 265.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Naoya Honda | 48c | 256.35$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Naoya Honda | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Hunter Heck | 77c | 222.4$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hunter Heck | 50c | 218$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.45 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Hunter Heck | 51c | 207.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Naoya Honda | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Hunter Heck | 51c | 196.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hunter Heck | 60c | 149.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…3dcabacked Naoya Honda | 40c | 116.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Naoya Honda | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…1408backed Naoya Honda | 19c | 107.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c3…fd98backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…828fbacked Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…48f7backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…ba30backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06b…76ddbacked Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…9d98backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Naoya Honda | 30c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…5eb3backed Hunter Heck | 48c | 100.35$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Naoya Honda | 53c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Naoya Honda | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hunter Heck | 52c | 98.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edb…00a9backed Hunter Heck | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Hunter Heck | 47c | 88.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Naoya Honda | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Hunter Heck | 54c | 85.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Naoya Honda | 25c | 85.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Naoya Honda | 47c | 81.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 516 | 44.8%231 W · 285 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Naoya Honda | 30c | 80.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Naoya Honda | 44c | 78.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hunter Heck | 57c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Naoya Honda | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 796 | 46%366 W · 430 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Naoya Honda | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Naoya Honda | 51c | 52.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Hunter Heck | 45c | 52.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e79…f78ebacked Naoya Honda | 53c | 51.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Hunter Heck | 44c | 44.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…ec24backed Naoya Honda | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Naoya Honda | 52c | 38.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Naoya Honda | 52c | 34.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Hunter Heck | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Naoya Honda | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Naoya Honda | 44c | 27.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Hunter Heck | 73c | 26.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Naoya Honda | 45c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Hunter Heck | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…af22backed Naoya Honda | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -9.1wins | -0.25per pick | 70cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Hunter Heck | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Hunter Heck | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Hunter Heck | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.