Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Spirit Academy (BO1) - Paragon Turbina Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x077aa7d224f18069825dc516929d81fdb495c4a01357437bc23f43fc078ed6f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Level UP, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 1,993$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.92 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Level UP | 1c | 1,550$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Level UP | 32c | 776.55$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.77 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Level UP | 28c | 600$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Level UP | 21c | 400.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Level UP | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Spirit Academy | 47c | 399.24$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.81 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Level UP | 8c | 128.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Level UP | 37c | 120.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Level UP | 29c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Level UP | 58c | 89.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Spirit Academy | 23c | 84.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf99c…3f0abacked Level UP | 56c | 64.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Spirit Academy | 75c | 42.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…8ef6backed Level UP | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Level UP | 69c | 30.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Level UP | 60c | 22.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Level UP | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.