Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0788524695867d4b787d8caa6658dca511cdd3ec2b31a50684673a3818b3e344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed No | 0c | 50,937$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 74c | 303.24$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.74 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 254.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.76 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 254.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 240.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 21c | 215.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.1 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 6c | 163.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 41c | 161.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed Yes | 27c | 139.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 119.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 49c | 115.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 63c | 91.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 63c | 84.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 18c | 83.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a6…8591backed Yes | 18c | 71.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 69.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 71c | 67.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 19c | 66.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 72c | 59.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 79c | 54.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 39c | 52.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 48c | 50.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 74c | 49.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 43c | 45.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 48c | 39.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 46c | 39.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 67c | 35.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…8b68backed Yes | 30c | 34.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 67c | 32.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 24.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 68c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.