CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: The MongolZ vs. Aurora
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0797644d09b6b19cc3f1ccb4b3d3e1548fae073aa6cad43272d9bc44611ef003
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof The MongolZ, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed The MongolZ | 57c | 6,000$3,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,429.3 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed The MongolZ | 0c | 5,432$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 42c | 4,736$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.69 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aurora | 43c | 4,293$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.28 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Aurora | 44c | 4,140$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.44 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked The MongolZ | 56c | 1,749$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.47 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed The MongolZ | 57c | 1,500$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Aurora | 44c | 1,416$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.94 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…901abacked Aurora | 45c | 1,000$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed The MongolZ | 38c | 900$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked The MongolZ | 56c | 641.99$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.52 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked The MongolZ | 57c | 604.49$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.23 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf7…ee71backed The MongolZ | 58c | 593.1$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Aurora | 63c | 470.36$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.9 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…5318backed The MongolZ | 34c | 290.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked The MongolZ | 57c | 273.24$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.72 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Aurora | 76c | 243.36$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed The MongolZ | 56c | 206$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…fb5dbacked The MongolZ | 55c | 190$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed The MongolZ | 58c | 175$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed The MongolZ | 58c | 173.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7d47backed The MongolZ | 59c | 152.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.85 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3a…9b33backed The MongolZ | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…3ee6backed The MongolZ | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed The MongolZ | 58c | 130.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.8 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked The MongolZ | 55c | 114.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed The MongolZ | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 145 | 40.7%59 W · 86 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked The MongolZ | 58c | 100.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked The MongolZ | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked The MongolZ | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed The MongolZ | 51c | 82.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed The MongolZ | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…374dbacked The MongolZ | 57c | 47.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…a0f0backed The MongolZ | 53c | 46.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1da…b1eabacked Aurora | 44c | 46.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Aurora | 43c | 46.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…c83dbacked The MongolZ | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…8c88backed The MongolZ | 56c | 38.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Aurora | 45c | 35.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.