Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07d875ae9d128565143ae50c4ba09f2bcaadc8063311481d7a7c863f60a41e03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, ALIS VENTORUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd74…334dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 8c | 1,357$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed ALIS VENTORUS | 33c | 441.87$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.96 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ALIS VENTORUS | 46c | 402.68$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.63 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked VP.Prodigy | 78c | 369.1$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…8b21backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 352.51$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.44 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ALIS VENTORUS | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed ALIS VENTORUS | 40c | 249.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed VP.Prodigy | 53c | 247.71$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 68c | 235.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed ALIS VENTORUS | 37c | 233.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…215ebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 65c | 228.09$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 172.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed VP.Prodigy | 66c | 149.45$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked VP.Prodigy | 45c | 146.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked VP.Prodigy | 76c | 136.23$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 123.3$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 36c | 113.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed ALIS VENTORUS | 44c | 110.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked VP.Prodigy | 60c | 108.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 100.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed VP.Prodigy | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…51d1backed VP.Prodigy | 71c | 97.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked VP.Prodigy | 57c | 79.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked VP.Prodigy | 67c | 69.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…2368backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 61.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…247cbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 43c | 55.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked VP.Prodigy | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked ALIS VENTORUS | 36c | 50.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…f631backed VP.Prodigy | 63c | 49.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…b250backed VP.Prodigy | 61c | 48.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked VP.Prodigy | 59c | 47.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed VP.Prodigy | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked VP.Prodigy | 35c | 46.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 59c | 38.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 43c | 38.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed ALIS VENTORUS | 46c | 31.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba0…980fbacked VP.Prodigy | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed VP.Prodigy | 65c | 25.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked VP.Prodigy | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked VP.Prodigy | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked VP.Prodigy | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 WinnerALIS VENTORUS won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 2 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.