Premier League · resolved market
Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07e4048299ab257638b0935442b6f8b26969e55e08211ac77f149a0c20a38c0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,415 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Under | 50c | 4,353$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.33 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 49c | 2,420$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.03 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Under | 50c | 1,986$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.68 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 1,317$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.5 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…4ef0backed Under | 50c | 1,023$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.61 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 13c | 1,002$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 133 | 27.1%36 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 49c | 817.63$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.64 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 636.36$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.47 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 51c | 504.99$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.55 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 486.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Under | 49c | 448.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 45c | 427$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.15 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f9…2e72backed Over | 6c | 385.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 43c | 246.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.16 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 52c | 240.21$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 49c | 234.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.69 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Under | 50c | 170$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 141.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 52c | 96.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 559 | 55.1%308 W · 251 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…a1b8backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 49c | 66.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1,636 | 52.9%866 W · 770 L | +32.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Over | 50c | 23.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +12.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)Leicester City FC won
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.