Premier League · resolved market
Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd62aba3b69341e35a6e985dbbcf7bac0336ba9356eb1fd14f0bb5faec4abb122
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,444 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 3,840$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.16 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 32c | 999$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.68 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 39c | 780.03$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.62 | 133 | 27.1%36 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 77c | 522.5$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 157 | 72%113 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 76c | 392.94$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.63 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 322.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.95 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 248.03$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 68c | 203.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 40c | 193.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 43c | 170$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 24c | 124.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 46c | 107.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 78.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…a1b8backed Over | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…0e25backed Over | 30c | 56.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Under | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 75c | 40.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 50c | 26.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 80c | 19.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)Leicester City FC won
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Watford FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.