Tennis · resolved market
ITF Karuizawa: Sora Fukuda vs Koki Matsuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0848f8b1642b57913c7937db1a9a487b530aa02156c9bc7eb3e16d5dd0bbd281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sora Fukudaof Sora Fukuda, Koki Matsuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sora Fukuda | 58c | 1,519$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.08 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Koki Matsuda | 40c | 1,324$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Koki Matsuda | 18c | 1,275$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.22 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Koki Matsuda | 38c | 419.14$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Koki Matsuda | 15c | 301$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Koki Matsuda | 45c | 269.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 377 | 38.2%144 W · 233 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Koki Matsuda | 38c | 182.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 214 | 48.1%103 W · 111 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Sora Fukuda | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Koki Matsuda | 48c | 176.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Koki Matsuda | 27c | 175.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Sora Fukuda | 49c | 175$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…b3cdbacked Sora Fukuda | 58c | 172.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Koki Matsuda | 15c | 150.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 367 | 57.8%212 W · 155 L | +26.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Sora Fukuda | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Koki Matsuda | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d04…022bbacked Koki Matsuda | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 145 | 31.7%46 W · 99 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff87…f5f7backed Sora Fukuda | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Sora Fukuda | 47c | 75.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e3…8c11backed Koki Matsuda | 46c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…20e4backed Sora Fukuda | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Sora Fukuda | 71c | 59.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Koki Matsuda | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Sora Fukuda | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sora Fukuda | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Koki Matsuda | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 58.8%107 W · 75 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Koki Matsuda | 37c | 30.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 390 | 39.5%154 W · 236 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Koki Matsuda | 66c | 17.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.