Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x085aa0c2764a6b6933cc65fd77d0c11d98263284a2b1aa3d6abca1bc31e3915b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof PlayTime, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3763…345fbacked PlayTime | 45c | 1,225$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked MOUZ | 59c | 950.28$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.85 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed MOUZ | 60c | 548.83$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.34 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…0457backed MOUZ | 60c | 373.95$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…9474backed PlayTime | 43c | 169.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked MOUZ | 31c | 159.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed PlayTime | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed MOUZ | 58c | 121.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked PlayTime | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PlayTime | 41c | 96.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed MOUZ | 56c | 95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed MOUZ | 56c | 76.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…59dbbacked PlayTime | 36c | 74.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed MOUZ | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked PlayTime | 43c | 38.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…b6ffbacked PlayTime | 44c | 22.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked MOUZ | 61c | 22.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group APlayTime won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs PlayTime - Game 2 WinnerPlayTime won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.