TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Bonn: Jan Choinski vs Jamie Mackenzie

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jan Choinskiof Jan Choinski, Jamie Mackenzie
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,200
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,860

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,200 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Jamie Mackenzie10c17,829$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.298,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Jamie Mackenzie10c14,109$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.133,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7544…e3aebacked Jamie Mackenzie9c9,704$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.3618246.7%85 W · 97 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jamie Mackenzie5c8,257$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.338,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Jamie Mackenzie7c2,619$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1888,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3663…8950backed Jamie Mackenzie22c2,300$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3539243.4%170 W · 222 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Jamie Mackenzie7c1,910$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.661,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Jan Choinski79c1,831$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.5128850.3%145 W · 143 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Jamie Mackenzie2c1,450$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0568430%205 W · 479 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d4…8172backed Jamie Mackenzie8c1,120$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.594513.3%6 W · 39 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed Jamie Mackenzie21c952.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Jamie Mackenzie21c828.38$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9630339.3%119 W · 184 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Jamie Mackenzie12c533.92$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0796035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Jamie Mackenzie6c489.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2187741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Jamie Mackenzie5c464.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4842546.4%197 W · 228 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Jan Choinski80c464.05$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.661,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Jamie Mackenzie20c451$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2133235.2%117 W · 215 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe521…9caebacked Jamie Mackenzie9c449.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1744527.2%121 W · 324 L-1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9941…e21ebacked Jamie Mackenzie3c420$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Jamie Mackenzie9c416.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.555,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a4…190ebacked Jan Choinski79c377.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.717156.3%40 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Jamie Mackenzie22c345$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.943743.7%191 W · 246 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jamie Mackenzie9c333.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.992,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Jan Choinski80c314.46$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8911372.6%82 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick78cpaid-6.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Jamie Mackenzie21c285.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Jamie Mackenzie8c273.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.032,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Jamie Mackenzie7c268.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8239446.7%184 W · 210 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Jamie Mackenzie22c263.75$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.032,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa11…650bbacked Jamie Mackenzie5c231.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117512%9 W · 66 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Jamie Mackenzie19c214.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8514637.7%55 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e5…e6adbacked Jamie Mackenzie9c211.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010310.7%11 W · 92 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1861…408dbacked Jan Choinski79c205.06$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0644851.6%231 W · 217 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d9…b1b1backed Jamie Mackenzie7c203$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2150736.1%183 W · 324 L-0.5wins0.00per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Jamie Mackenzie9c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.361,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab70…774cbacked Jamie Mackenzie17c167.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4116957.4%97 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Jamie Mackenzie9c157.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.841,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc024…cc2ebacked Jan Choinski80c125.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.468165.4%53 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Jamie Mackenzie11c103.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.942,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd770…209dbacked Jamie Mackenzie10c99.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.066552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca0d…2602backed Jamie Mackenzie21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207948.1%38 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Jamie Mackenzie22c77.27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1719347.2%91 W · 102 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec17…0af9backed Jamie Mackenzie22c68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9612839.1%50 W · 78 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b3…e104backed Jamie Mackenzie22c68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9611837.3%44 W · 74 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x855f…4954backed Jan Choinski79c66.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9910570.5%74 W · 31 L+0.5wins0.00per pick70cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1b…764fbacked Jamie Mackenzie22c66.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.598338.6%32 W · 51 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc898…a9b9backed Jan Choinski80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.53574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b4…da40backed Jan Choinski80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.534359.5%204 W · 139 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf5…d9f2backed Jan Choinski80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51915.8%3 W · 16 L-8.0wins-0.42per pick58cpaid-76.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Jamie Mackenzie22c46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1293557.3%536 W · 399 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…ea3bbacked Jan Choinski80c40.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1733346.2%154 W · 179 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Jan Choinski79c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5669545.8%318 W · 377 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c8…857bbacked Jan Choinski79c31.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.651681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick68cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Jan Choinski79c25.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.311,04236.5%380 W · 662 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a2…0532backed Jan Choinski80c25.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0220570.7%145 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1298…97b6backed Jan Choinski80c22.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.58446.4%39 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Jan Choinski79c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1519064.7%123 W · 67 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.