Tennis · resolved market
Bonn: Jan Choinski vs Jamie Mackenzie
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x085cb66e291f5f87ebd00697fdea908ceae9e999b7570fac372f3da4a79d9451
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jan Choinskiof Jan Choinski, Jamie Mackenzie
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Jamie Mackenzie | 10c | 17,829$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,778.29 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Jamie Mackenzie | 10c | 14,109$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.13 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…e3aebacked Jamie Mackenzie | 9c | 9,704$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.36 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jamie Mackenzie | 5c | 8,257$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.33 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Jamie Mackenzie | 7c | 2,619$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…8950backed Jamie Mackenzie | 22c | 2,300$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.35 | 392 | 43.4%170 W · 222 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Jamie Mackenzie | 7c | 1,910$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Jan Choinski | 79c | 1,831$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.51 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Jamie Mackenzie | 2c | 1,450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…8172backed Jamie Mackenzie | 8c | 1,120$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…9014backed Jamie Mackenzie | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Jamie Mackenzie | 21c | 828.38$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Jamie Mackenzie | 12c | 533.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Jamie Mackenzie | 6c | 489.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Jamie Mackenzie | 5c | 464.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 425 | 46.4%197 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Jan Choinski | 80c | 464.05$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.66 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Jamie Mackenzie | 20c | 451$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Jamie Mackenzie | 9c | 449.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 445 | 27.2%121 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…e21ebacked Jamie Mackenzie | 3c | 420$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Jamie Mackenzie | 9c | 416.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a4…190ebacked Jan Choinski | 79c | 377.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Jamie Mackenzie | 22c | 345$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 9c | 333.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Jan Choinski | 80c | 314.46$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 113 | 72.6%82 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Jamie Mackenzie | 21c | 285.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Jamie Mackenzie | 8c | 273.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Jamie Mackenzie | 7c | 268.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Jamie Mackenzie | 22c | 263.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa11…650bbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 5c | 231.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Jamie Mackenzie | 19c | 214.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e6adbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 9c | 211.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 10.7%11 W · 92 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Jan Choinski | 79c | 205.06$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…b1b1backed Jamie Mackenzie | 7c | 203$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 507 | 36.1%183 W · 324 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab70…774cbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 17c | 167.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…b694backed Jamie Mackenzie | 9c | 157.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,429 | 44.2%631 W · 798 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc024…cc2ebacked Jan Choinski | 80c | 125.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Jamie Mackenzie | 11c | 103.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 10c | 99.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0d…2602backed Jamie Mackenzie | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Jamie Mackenzie | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…0af9backed Jamie Mackenzie | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 128 | 39.1%50 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…e104backed Jamie Mackenzie | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4954backed Jan Choinski | 79c | 66.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 105 | 70.5%74 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Jamie Mackenzie | 22c | 66.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…a9b9backed Jan Choinski | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b4…da40backed Jan Choinski | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 343 | 59.5%204 W · 139 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…d9f2backed Jan Choinski | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -8.0wins | -0.42per pick | 58cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Jamie Mackenzie | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…ea3bbacked Jan Choinski | 80c | 40.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 333 | 46.2%154 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Jan Choinski | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…857bbacked Jan Choinski | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Jan Choinski | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Jan Choinski | 80c | 25.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 205 | 70.7%145 W · 60 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…97b6backed Jan Choinski | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Jan Choinski | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 190 | 64.7%123 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bonn: Jan Choinski vs Jamie Mackenziethis page
- Set Handicap: Mackenzie (-1.5) vs Choinski (+1.5)Choinski won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.