Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Newcastle end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x089c14393dad9d4a3ff7f9c4814bb188353459028d661d74d7896363ded3568d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 0c | 4,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 78c | 2,564$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.1 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 22c | 2,126$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.25 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…efeebacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 6c | 867.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 27c | 751.49$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.34 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 8c | 651.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…502abacked No | 78c | 535.9$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 4c | 501$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 76c | 490.81$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.47 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 22c | 485$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 74c | 420.24$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a4…dd6fbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe7…fbe1backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f3…9cbdbacked No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…a0aebacked No | 78c | 392.31$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…03f0backed Yes | 24c | 341.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2046…0e2cbacked Yes | 24c | 341.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…224cbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…8495backed No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cca…7889backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 219.67$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf482…d3c3backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…da4fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes | 24c | 87.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 22c | 75.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1673…e40dbacked Yes | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce21…7738backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c07…0157backed Yes | 23c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…84b8backed No | 76c | 54.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…6f25backed Yes | 22c | 54.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…ac6bbacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 53c | 46.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +15.6wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +437.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x976f…ce60backed No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…3786backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1a…9f78backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc549…3ccbbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fad…da82backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…648ebacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Newcastle end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-15?Yes won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-02-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.