Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Maanshan 8 Men: Shu Muto vs Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08ba7d9fdea5d99422f9f70899c564d37b777389d3a031fc529be9c80260b0dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Denis Vishenchuk Vishenkoof Shu Muto, Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a5d…02e6backed Shu Muto | 32c | 501.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf889…c9fbbacked Shu Muto | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Shu Muto | 39c | 175.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Shu Muto | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 38c | 170.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 62c | 141.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Shu Muto | 49c | 130.02$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 33c | 92.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 69c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Shu Muto | 51c | 67.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 41c | 59.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 41c | 51.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Shu Muto | 52c | 43.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…96c3backed Shu Muto | 50c | 33.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37f…6635backed Shu Muto | 57c | 25.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…722ebacked Shu Muto | 50c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1c…a0a2backed Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 50c | 24.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…75e3backed Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 50c | 23.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Denis Vishenchuk Vishenko | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 601 | 41.1%247 W · 354 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.