NFL · resolved market
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c609acb858a391c9a841320e192b0b99732645e06eaea5e9293ae33ff9f94d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Raiders, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Raiders | 54c | 22,316$12,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,036.2 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 46c | 19,934$9,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,763.71 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Bears | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bears | 1c | 906.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.82 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Bears | 47c | 780$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.4 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…8665backed Bears | 48c | 698.65$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bears | 52c | 335.96$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Raiders | 48c | 315.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.66 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bears | 48c | 269.24$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Bears | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Bears | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Raiders | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Raiders | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raiders | 52c | 121$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Raiders | 51c | 116.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Raiders | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Bears | 50c | 100.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 138 | 66.7%92 W · 46 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Raiders | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e7abbacked Raiders | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Bears | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Raiders | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Raiders | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Bears | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…7a58backed Bears | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)this page
- Bears vs. RaidersBears won
- Bears vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5Over won
- Bears vs. Raiders: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Raiders (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Raiders (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.