NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Raiders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5eb32c4b800bb96ec906a69507af92b567141e7dd6b023f6f0647ca3d840b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Bears, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,055,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,124,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,055,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 706 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Bears | 45c | 601,872$270,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331,029.5 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Raiders | 56c | 228,571$128,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128,000 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Bears | 44c | 228,086$99,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128,583.51 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…0aacbacked Raiders | 56c | 203,142$112,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,954.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bears | 41c | 136,465$56,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,330.15 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Raiders | 57c | 131,194$74,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,500.72 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Raiders | 55c | 120,000$66,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,000 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked Raiders | 57c | 117,018$66,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,700 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Bears | 45c | 92,275$41,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,006.16 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Bears | 44c | 80,752$35,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,228.92 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Raiders | 56c | 74,925$41,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,957.99 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Bears | 41c | 66,666$27,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,332.94 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Raiders | 55c | 60,722$33,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,584.41 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Raiders | 55c | 58,283$32,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,068.17 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears | 43c | 54,264$23,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,941.39 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked Bears | 46c | 52,001$24,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,863.24 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Raiders | 53c | 42,010$22,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,471.09 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759b…2ab3backed Raiders | 55c | 36,303$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +246.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Bears | 45c | 32,849$14,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,917.65 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bears | 29c | 31,884$9,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,503.41 | 206 | 34.5%71 W · 135 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Raiders | 52c | 25,126$12,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,957.81 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Raiders | 55c | 25,000$13,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,750 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Bears | 46c | 25,000$11,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,499.79 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Raiders | 54c | 23,720$12,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,741.81 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Raiders | 79c | 23,104$18,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,251.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bears | 29c | 22,424$6,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,860.48 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Raiders | 67c | 21,951$14,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,632.34 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bears | 44c | 19,481$8,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,930.18 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Raiders | 60c | 18,724$11,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,295.08 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Bears | 35c | 18,395$6,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,951.38 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Raiders | 55c | 18,182$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Raiders | 54c | 14,815$8,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,000 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Bears | 44c | 14,000$6,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,910 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Raiders | 64c | 12,791$8,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,146 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Raiders | 53c | 11,618$6,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,200 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 43c | 10,500$4,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,985 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Bears | 24c | 10,200$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,716 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Bears | 44c | 10,000$4,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,643.69 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Raiders | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Bears | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,600 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Bears | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.95 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Raiders | 69c | 9,120$6,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,296.46 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bears | 45c | 9,086$4,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,953.8 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Raiders | 55c | 8,900$4,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,895 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Bears | 44c | 7,932$3,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,441.92 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Raiders | 59c | 7,712$4,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,519.08 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Raiders | 67c | 7,446$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,008.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Raiders | 50c | 7,181$3,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,604.35 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb9…ce7ebacked Raiders | 75c | 6,295$4,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,692.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Raiders | 77c | 5,997$4,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,617.91 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Raiders | 51c | 5,942$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010.88 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Raiders | 51c | 5,071$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,586.29 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Bears | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,749.86 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Bears | 45c | 4,500$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Raiders | 53c | 4,313$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,288.98 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bears | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Raiders | 54c | 4,073$2,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.5 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Bears | 37c | 3,605$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Raiders | 70c | 3,539$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Bears | 45c | 3,350$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.29 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Bears | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.33 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Raiders | 74c | 3,235$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.6 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Bears | 60c | 3,197$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.66 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Raiders | 49c | 3,084$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…1a00backed Bears | 44c | 3,068$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Raiders | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Bears | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Raiders | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.97 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…2587backed Bears | 42c | 2,487$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Bears | 44c | 2,395$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Raiders | 51c | 2,312$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.1 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Bears | 34c | 2,286$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.21 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bears | 34c | 2,271$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.51 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Raiders | 55c | 2,210$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Bears | 45c | 2,200$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.66 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Bears | 46c | 2,055$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.7 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Raiders | 54c | 2,053$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.65 | 240 | 54.6%131 W · 109 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a5a8backed Bears | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Bears | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Bears | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…dd3cbacked Bears | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Bears | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.99 | 176 | 9.1%16 W · 160 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…1617backed Raiders | 53c | 1,889$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Raiders | 54c | 1,855$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.68 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6c31backed Bears | 46c | 1,818$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…2f53backed Raiders | 55c | 1,817$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…422ebacked Bears | 46c | 1,817$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…5093backed Raiders | 55c | 1,817$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…55aabacked Bears | 46c | 1,810$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +175.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…24c6backed Raiders | 55c | 1,810$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7127backed Bears | 46c | 1,794$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…e672backed Raiders | 55c | 1,793$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a6…510dbacked Raiders | 55c | 1,784$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…3f7cbacked Bears | 46c | 1,784$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…dbebbacked Raiders | 55c | 1,773$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84d…9714backed Bears | 46c | 1,772$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ef…f3dfbacked Raiders | 55c | 1,738$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b61…35abbacked Bears | 46c | 1,738$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…acc7backed Bears | 46c | 1,733$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7433…5930backed Raiders | 55c | 1,732$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Raidersthis page
- Bears vs. Raiders: O/U 42.5Over won
- Bears vs. Raiders: O/U 47.5Over won
- Spread: Raiders (-1.5)Bears won
- Spread: Raiders (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Raiders (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.