TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. Raiders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Bears, Raiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,055,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,124,009

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,055,241 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 706 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Bears45c601,872$270,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331,029.58344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Raiders56c228,571$128,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128,0005648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Bears44c228,086$99,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,583.5112352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38fa…0aacbacked Raiders56c203,142$112,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,954.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bears41c136,465$56,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,330.1547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Raiders57c131,194$74,501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,500.7210566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Raiders55c120,000$66,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,00017454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Raiders57c117,018$66,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,7001957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bears45c92,275$41,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,006.1630743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Bears44c80,752$35,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,228.9212144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Raiders56c74,925$41,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,957.993259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Bears41c66,666$27,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,332.9414351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Raiders55c60,722$33,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,584.4122950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Raiders55c58,283$32,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,068.1724652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Bears43c54,264$23,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,941.3941851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Bears46c52,001$24,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,863.243138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Raiders53c42,010$22,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,471.0917647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759b…2ab3backed Raiders55c36,303$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0002259.1%13 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+246.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Bears45c32,849$14,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,917.655527.3%15 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Bears29c31,884$9,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,503.4120634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Raiders52c25,126$12,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,957.8122548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Raiders55c25,000$13,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,7503745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Bears46c25,000$11,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,499.7916545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Raiders54c23,720$12,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,741.8144652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Raiders79c23,104$18,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,251.92540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bears29c22,424$6,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,860.4860049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Raiders67c21,951$14,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,632.3430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bears44c19,481$8,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,930.1853348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Raiders60c18,724$11,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,295.0841947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Bears35c18,395$6,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,951.3813430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Raiders55c18,182$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Raiders54c14,815$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00011649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Bears44c14,000$6,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9103056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Raiders64c12,791$8,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,1465330.2%16 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Raiders53c11,618$6,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,2004250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears43c10,500$4,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,98583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Bears24c10,200$2,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7168343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Bears44c10,000$4,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,643.6911252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Raiders55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5007042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Bears44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6003447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed Bears49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,099.953652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Raiders69c9,120$6,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,296.4623850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bears45c9,086$4,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,953.819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Raiders55c8,900$4,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8951942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Bears44c7,932$3,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,441.925837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Raiders59c7,712$4,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,519.0829356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Raiders67c7,446$5,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,008.461464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Raiders50c7,181$3,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,604.3510061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fb9…ce7ebacked Raiders75c6,295$4,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,692.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-28.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Raiders77c5,997$4,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,617.916428.1%18 W · 46 L-12.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-53.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Raiders51c5,942$3,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010.8817348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Raiders51c5,071$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.2934349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Bears25c5,000$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.8625137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bears45c4,500$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,46018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae76…dce5backed Raiders53c4,313$2,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.9827339.2%107 W · 166 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bears49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.6325744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Raiders54c4,073$2,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.537350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Bears37c3,605$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,27431056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Raiders70c3,539$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,477.3520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Bears45c3,350$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.2928151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Bears45c3,333$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,833.339152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Raiders74c3,235$2,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,393.610462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Bears60c3,197$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.6614349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Raiders49c3,084$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50014763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb6a…1a00backed Bears44c3,068$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.181346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Raiders55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6503948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Bears47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3252556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Raiders53c2,500$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.973452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…2587backed Bears42c2,487$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Bears44c2,395$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.95650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Raiders51c2,312$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,179.117648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Bears34c2,286$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.214247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bears34c2,271$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.5168446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Raiders55c2,210$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.56752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Bears45c2,200$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.6626650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Bears46c2,055$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.724738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Raiders54c2,053$1,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.6524054.6%131 W · 109 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5911…a5a8backed Bears49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Bears47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06014926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bears44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Bears49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02014148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Bears45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.991769.1%16 W · 160 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f1…1617backed Raiders53c1,889$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Raiders54c1,855$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.6816346%75 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6c31backed Bears46c1,818$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+164.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe467…2f53backed Raiders55c1,817$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.62425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1214…422ebacked Bears46c1,817$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa147…5093backed Raiders55c1,817$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe059…55aabacked Bears46c1,810$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+175.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x771d…24c6backed Raiders55c1,810$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0643…7127backed Bears46c1,794$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x176a…e672backed Raiders55c1,793$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75a6…510dbacked Raiders55c1,784$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a60…3f7cbacked Bears46c1,784$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$963.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+147.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6372…dbebbacked Raiders55c1,773$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84d…9714backed Bears46c1,772$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ef…f3dfbacked Raiders55c1,738$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b61…35abbacked Bears46c1,738$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf624…acc7backed Bears46c1,733$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7433…5930backed Raiders55c1,732$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.