Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08dc5ac925f05582449b9b56d324a643eb697cf087c7ffea6c28b6ef3f049d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,232$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 6c | 551.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 5c | 308$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 8c | 287.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 268.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 257.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 231.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 211.35$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 38c | 206$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cab…d6c7backed Yes | 10c | 155.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed Yes | 16c | 153.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…2b59backed Yes | 17c | 144.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 138.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 10c | 131$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 13c | 115.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 15c | 115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 15c | 100.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe820…9f12backed Yes | 11c | 100.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 75.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 77c | 75.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 69.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 68.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 55.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 53.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 52.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 51.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 28c | 51.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 29c | 41.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 32c | 40.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 33.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 76c | 31.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…d921backed No | 77c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 78c | 13.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.