Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a2b7c60400ea58be780d3ead4d9fc90a340bee3249e63b8c82fc3640da6fbe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 11c | 994.43$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 553$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 276.62$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 26c | 262.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 10c | 256.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 235.71$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 216.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 8c | 207.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 180.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 14c | 124.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 118.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 13c | 102.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 99.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 98.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 12c | 94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 90.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 82.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…4353backed No | 70c | 71.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 69.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 68.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 49.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 47.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 43.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 30c | 38.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…68b2backed Yes | 34c | 35.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 35.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 33.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 75c | 32.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 29.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 29.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 22.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 79c | 20.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…633cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…bae5backed No | 68c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed No | 68c | 15.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.