TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-02?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,964

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,036 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc919…a162backed Yes6c17,671$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes34c5,465$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.333,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.9916647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No80c2,496$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.652,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Yes35c2,053$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.559552.6%50 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5216…fe0bbacked No66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5101100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ad…e1e5backed Yes34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Yes34c1,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.142025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked No65c1,456$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.257648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa4…69cdbacked No66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9496…7454backed No66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…9fefbacked Yes33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cad…994fbacked Yes33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes46c798.28$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.215847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yes34c754$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.993438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd1…ca22backed Yes35c592.71$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.45862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes35c574.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004924.5%12 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No68c486.19$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7151136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc661…56debacked Yes35c362.86$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f2…876dbacked No66c328$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed No66c303.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.036827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…8502backed Yes35c228.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d3d…bdddbacked Yes34c155$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes33c154.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1510942.2%46 W · 63 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9baf…bd11backed Yes34c152$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2269…6304backed No67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.255166.7%34 W · 17 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xced3…ce6bbacked Yes35c143.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54fb…920cbacked Yes35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes54c131.29$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.7655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes34c124$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5434342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No66c108.12$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.816542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No64c103.33$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.216652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfceb…37dabacked Yes34c103$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…2f88backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25b0…94ebbacked No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46dc…a15dbacked Yes36c93.56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked No67c89.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.138169.1%56 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x383c…0d96backed Yes34c88.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes32c87.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.166451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b1…c973backed No46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.961250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d3…0698backed Yes35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252969%20 W · 9 L+4.7wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.519458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203868.4%26 W · 12 L+8.0wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203450%17 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…9a51backed Yes35c53.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes45c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.259846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd99e…b859backed Yes34c47.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed No68c41.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.184376.7%33 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+20.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9357…042ebacked Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0cf…5ab8backed Yes35c34.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf47e…5031backed No66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+63.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84522.2%10 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked No68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.416360.3%38 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1947…94bcbacked No67c26.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.875959.3%35 W · 24 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b9…c68cbacked Yes54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.