College Football · resolved market
Will Texas beat Arkansas by 13 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0903a1bbcbbaf03ca4500ab2cdab54701ce9fb7494316aa557f515f37ad50f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 46c | 8,568$3,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,621.43 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…822ebacked Yes | 54c | 7,682$4,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,185 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Yes | 55c | 3,455$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…a986backed No | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed No | 48c | 1,890$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.04 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 41c | 1,415$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.6 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,349$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.36 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 45c | 1,234$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.7 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +324.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Yes | 53c | 893.25$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…4bbebacked Yes | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Yes | 54c | 721.48$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.6 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 46c | 707.1$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Yes | 53c | 518.87$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed No | 45c | 493.82$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…82fbbacked Yes | 55c | 254.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.15 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…1cf3backed Yes | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked No | 50c | 175.62$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 61c | 175$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Yes | 52c | 144.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 55c | 117$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 33c | 99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Texas beat Arkansas by 13 or more points?this page
- Will Texas and Arkansas combine for 58 or more points?Under won
- Will Texas beat Arkansas?Texas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.